I tend to be a bit sceptical when I hear that China will continue its rapid ascent into world dominance. The main reasons for my scepticism are:

• As China's GDP continues to grow, the workers of China will begin to demand higher wages and benefits. Just like the Industrial Revolution that happened in North America and Europe at the turn of the last century, society will progress such that working conditions are forced to improve. Someone who lives in a hut and can barely afford fish and rice, making $2 a day assembling 50 inch plasma TV's... will start to wonder why they can't afford electicity while their boss lives like a king.
  

• China's centralized communist government will make a fatal mistake. So far China has been transitioning to a mixed capitalist-communist system fairly well. But it's not too far out of the realm of possibility that one day the communist government will make a decision that goes against its economic interests - like invading Taiwan or Tibet. The same type of problems that plagued the dictatorship in Iraq (invading Kuwait) can befall China, since not all of their priorities are economic. Or the next generation of communist leaders might decide economic reforms went too far and move China back into a wholly communist system - destroying independent business in the process.
  

• Their human rights record can catch up to them. What if another Tianamen Square happens? Or they execute the wrong activist, or do something so outrageous against basic human rights that world opinion turns quickly against them? One communist party leader in one far corner of the country may think firing wildly into a group of protestors with a machine gun is a good idea. But if that gets captured on video tape and broadcast to the world, China might find itself on the outs.
  

• America gets a vote. Obviously there are many things the United States can do to get in China's way on their way to the top. Not all of them are great options, but in desperation America could "repatriate" China's American assets. It could refuse to pay back any money that the U.S. owes to China. It could mandate that American companies sell products only manufactured in America. It could impose huge tarrifs on Chinese imported goods. It could impose sanctions. It could invade China militarily.
  

Obviously most of these are unlikely. But let's not underestimate the fact that America could view China's economic dominance as a "threat to national security" and justify openly or secretly acting against China in its own interest.

Various media reports have tracked the steady growth of China as an upcoming economic superpower. They are the world's most populous country - 1.32 billion people, and 15 million more people will be born in China every year. They will shortly exceed the United States in energy consumption. Not only do they make most of the products we buy, they lend us the money to buy them. (China lends the United States something like $250 Billion per year, and the U.S. trade deficit with China is... $250 Billion per year.)

Some people have said if you could make your child bilingual, make them learn Mandarin Chinese. At some point (soon), Chinese will surpass English as the most common language for business. With Chinese people emmigrating to almost every country in the world, there are large Chinese expatriate populations everywhere. In fact, it's not unreasonable to imagine a point where every major city in North America and Western Europe has Chinese as the second most common language spoken. For instance, in the last census, a full 40% of people living in Toronto came from Asian decent.

China's economic growth rate is something like 9.5% per year, while the United States is around 4%.

So the obvious conclusion a lot of people are coming to, is that China is in a position to take over from the United States as the world's economic superpower. Countries are looking at China as a new place to sell their goods. Companies are looking at China as a cheap place to get things made. But what should other people think? What should Canadians and Americans think of China's move to dominance?

Are we all going to lose our jobs to China? Can China keep its high-growth strategy for much longer without being forced to raise the standard of living of its people, or without being a democracy?

 

Every once and a while I like to check in on my favorite loser PowerBall Winner: Jack Whittaker.

The Washington Post has an excellent article about the misery and pain that has been brought to the people in and around Jack. It's a long article but worth a read.

* Jack's now estranged from his lovely, supportive wife of 40 years Jewell
* His only granddaughter Brandi, the love of his life he says, is dead
* His granddaughter's ex-boyfriend also died under suspicious circumstances
* A nice waitress at a gas stop, Brenda, with whom he shared some of his winnings, has people trying to take advantage of her even though Jack didn't give her that much money
* Several young people that associated with his granddaughter are under arrest for various crimes
* Some local business owners have gone out of business
* Jack has offered money to women to strip for him, even in front of their boyfriends

There seems to be no end to the misery. Donating money to a church does not seem to make up for the types of sin Jack has been engaging in.

I used to dream of winning a big lottery pot. I can't see myself turning down $100 million, but I can see from the Whittaker story that everything changes with a big win. All your friends change, your family changes, you change, anyone you give money to changes... You have to be very, very careful and not just throw money around.

The Apple iPod touch looks like a brilliant piece of technology. It's an iPod, it can surf the web with WiFi, you can view YouTube videos and buy iTunes songs. I want one. It'll be my next iPod.

But in one move, Apple has cut the legs out from under a few rabid iPhone fans.

From some reports, apparently the iPhone isn't a great phone. What about all those people who gave up phones they were really attached to, locked themselves into a 2 year contract with AT&T, in some cases giving up cheaper monthly plans with AT&T to pay more with the same provider? Some bloggers estimate the total 2-year cost of the iPhone at $1,900. The iPod touch is $399 with no monthly fees. Those early iPhone adopters - just got screwed.

What about people who flew to the United States from England, or drove down from Canada, purchased iPhones (again with 2 year agreements) willing to pay hefty roaming fees? Screwed.

What about those people who spent all summer trying to hack the iPhone, to allow people in other countries to own and use such a cool device? Well, their business model just went up in smoke.

In some ways, the iPod touch seems like a better device than the iPhone, since it has no monthly charge associated with it. (Most people with iPhones seem to think that AT&T is overcharging for the monthly plans.) I can keep my phone AND own an iPhone. Cool!

Credit where credit is due. I went back to Blockbuster the next day after renting a game that has major bugs in it. Although the behind the counter guy said "We don't normally do this" he did let me exchange the game for Madden 08. which I have been loving. So kudos to Blockbuster for allowing me to trade it for another one without much hassle. I was prepared for quite a fight.

By the way, Madden 08 gives up XBox 360 achievements / points like they're candy. I've been able to get 685 gamer points without too much difficulty, in about 5 hours of game play. This game has really helped my gamerscore.

 

CNN.com is simutaneously running two seperate articles about Bulls and Bears hurting people:

I think they're trying to tell us something about the stock market... hmmm...

 

I have been looking for a Poker game for my XBox 360 for a while, and while browsing the shelves at Blockbuster, this one caught my eye. So I rented it. I want my $7 back.

There's only one thing really important when it comes to a poker video game: that it plays poker well. All of the other considerations, such as interface design, come second.

On the sole criteria of "playing poker well", World Championship Poker: All-In featuring Howard Lederer and his sister Annie Duke on the cover, ranks an "F" - it fails by a long shot. If I were Annie Duke, I would be suing to take my picture off the cover cause it ruins her good name.

How bad can it be? Here are some examples:

* Playing in career mode, I sat down at a 5-card stud game. When my pair of Aces was beaten by 3-Queens the first time, I thought I was fairly beat. When it happened again 3 hands later (trip Queens over my two Aces), I cursed my bad luck. When it happened AGAIN 3 hands after that (huh? trip Queens again?), I started to get suspicious. And when I was dealt two aces AGAIN 3 hands after that, I folded them.

THE STUPID GAME DEALS THE SAME CARDS OVER AND OVER! This happened a few times, where I remember getting a pair of eights, drawing 3 cards, and getting two pair aces and eights. Happened a few hands later. Happened again a few hands after that. Getting random numbers right is FUNDAMENTAL to a poker game. Not this one.

* Playing in a tournament (100 player, multi-table). The opponents "go all in" almost every hand, or as a minimum "raise big". All-in. All-in. Raise $400 (blinds are $25/$50). All-in. It gets tiring. Finally I catch pocket Aces, and I call. Opponent catches a straight and I'm out.

Next tourney. Same thing - computer goes all-in every hand. Finally I catch A-K suited and I call. Opponent catches a straight and I'm out.

Next tourney. Same thing - computer goes all-in every hand. This time I keep folding, waiting for the all-in players to be busted out. Smart guy right? No. As soon as my table is broken up, I lose the very next hand. I didn't even get a chance to fold or call or even see my cards. And I am out of the tourney. Must have been a programming bug.

This game is seriously broken.